Duane Below
Age: 23
Team: DET
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
7 |
102 |
111 |
19 |
73 |
67 |
3 |
75 |
69 |
6.09 |
21 |
21 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
75 |
99 |
67 |
45 |
21 |
4 |
8.64 |
| 20th |
82 |
102 |
68 |
50 |
20 |
4 |
7.68 |
| 30th |
88 |
105 |
70 |
56 |
20 |
4 |
7.16 |
| 40th |
95 |
108 |
71 |
62 |
19 |
3 |
6.54 |
| 50th |
102 |
111 |
73 |
67 |
19 |
3 |
6.09 |
| 60th |
105 |
110 |
72 |
70 |
18 |
3 |
5.74 |
| 70th |
109 |
109 |
71 |
74 |
17 |
2 |
5.20 |
| 80th |
113 |
106 |
69 |
78 |
15 |
1 |
4.54 |
| 90th |
118 |
102 |
66 |
84 |
12 |
1 |
3.89 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 4 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
23 |
101 |
112 |
74 |
73 |
20 |
3 |
6.32 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
24 |
92 |
100 |
66 |
67 |
18 |
3 |
6.15 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
25 |
83 |
90 |
58 |
61 |
16 |
3 |
6.07 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
26 |
74 |
82 |
51 |
55 |
15 |
3 |
6.25 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
27 |
67 |
74 |
45 |
49 |
13 |
2 |
6.09 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
28 |
61 |
67 |
40 |
44 |
12 |
2 |
6.04 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.