Jonathan Connolly
Age: 25
Team: DET
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
4 |
62 |
73 |
10 |
26 |
27 |
2 |
41 |
38 |
5.52 |
11 |
11 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
45 |
67 |
26 |
16 |
12 |
3 |
8.60 |
| 20th |
49 |
69 |
26 |
19 |
12 |
3 |
7.90 |
| 30th |
54 |
69 |
26 |
22 |
11 |
3 |
6.67 |
| 40th |
58 |
72 |
26 |
24 |
11 |
2 |
6.21 |
| 50th |
62 |
73 |
26 |
27 |
10 |
2 |
5.52 |
| 60th |
64 |
72 |
25 |
29 |
9 |
2 |
5.06 |
| 70th |
67 |
71 |
24 |
31 |
8 |
1 |
4.43 |
| 80th |
70 |
68 |
23 |
33 |
6 |
1 |
3.73 |
| 90th |
73 |
65 |
21 |
37 |
5 |
0 |
3.08 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 5 |
0.5 |
2.6 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
25 |
62 |
74 |
26 |
30 |
11 |
2 |
5.71 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
26 |
56 |
67 |
23 |
26 |
10 |
2 |
5.72 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
27 |
50 |
61 |
21 |
23 |
9 |
2 |
5.89 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
28 |
45 |
55 |
18 |
21 |
8 |
2 |
5.84 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
29 |
41 |
49 |
16 |
19 |
7 |
1 |
5.56 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
30 |
37 |
44 |
15 |
17 |
6 |
1 |
5.53 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.