Lauren Gagnier
Age: 24
Team: DET
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
5 |
72 |
79 |
12 |
45 |
42 |
4 |
50 |
46 |
5.75 |
14 |
14 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
53 |
71 |
42 |
27 |
14 |
5 |
8.49 |
| 20th |
57 |
73 |
43 |
31 |
13 |
5 |
7.74 |
| 30th |
63 |
75 |
43 |
35 |
13 |
4 |
6.71 |
| 40th |
68 |
77 |
44 |
38 |
12 |
4 |
6.09 |
| 50th |
72 |
79 |
45 |
42 |
12 |
4 |
5.75 |
| 60th |
75 |
78 |
44 |
44 |
11 |
4 |
5.16 |
| 70th |
77 |
77 |
43 |
47 |
10 |
3 |
4.91 |
| 80th |
80 |
75 |
42 |
50 |
9 |
3 |
4.28 |
| 90th |
84 |
72 |
40 |
54 |
7 |
2 |
3.54 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 4 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
24 |
72 |
80 |
46 |
46 |
13 |
4 |
6.02 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
25 |
65 |
72 |
40 |
42 |
11 |
3 |
5.83 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
26 |
58 |
65 |
36 |
37 |
10 |
3 |
5.95 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
27 |
53 |
59 |
31 |
33 |
9 |
3 |
5.81 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
28 |
48 |
53 |
28 |
30 |
8 |
2 |
5.69 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
29 |
43 |
49 |
25 |
26 |
8 |
2 |
6.01 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.