Jason Grilli
Age: 32
Team: DET
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
3 |
66 |
63 |
5 |
30 |
51 |
3 |
31 |
29 |
3.95 |
57 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
49 |
56 |
28 |
35 |
6 |
4 |
5.69 |
| 20th |
54 |
58 |
28 |
40 |
6 |
3 |
5.00 |
| 30th |
58 |
59 |
29 |
43 |
5 |
3 |
4.50 |
| 40th |
62 |
61 |
29 |
47 |
5 |
3 |
4.21 |
| 50th |
66 |
63 |
30 |
51 |
5 |
3 |
3.95 |
| 60th |
67 |
63 |
30 |
53 |
5 |
3 |
3.90 |
| 70th |
70 |
62 |
29 |
55 |
4 |
2 |
3.34 |
| 80th |
72 |
61 |
28 |
58 |
3 |
2 |
3.00 |
| 90th |
74 |
60 |
27 |
61 |
3 |
2 |
2.80 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 6 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
32 |
66 |
63 |
30 |
56 |
5 |
3 |
3.93 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
2.1 |
| 2010 |
33 |
59 |
57 |
28 |
49 |
5 |
3 |
4.12 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.4 |
| 2011 |
34 |
53 |
51 |
26 |
43 |
4 |
2 |
4.03 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
| 2012 |
35 |
47 |
47 |
24 |
38 |
4 |
2 |
4.35 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2013 |
36 |
42 |
42 |
22 |
33 |
3 |
2 |
4.30 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2014 |
37 |
38 |
38 |
20 |
29 |
3 |
2 |
4.38 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.