Brandon Lyon
Age: 29
Team: DET
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 5 |
3 |
68 |
72 |
5 |
17 |
40 |
2 |
31 |
29 |
3.84 |
67 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
51 |
64 |
17 |
27 |
6 |
3 |
5.47 |
| 20th |
55 |
66 |
17 |
30 |
6 |
2 |
5.07 |
| 30th |
60 |
68 |
17 |
34 |
6 |
2 |
4.50 |
| 40th |
64 |
70 |
17 |
37 |
5 |
2 |
4.08 |
| 50th |
68 |
72 |
17 |
40 |
5 |
2 |
3.84 |
| 60th |
70 |
71 |
16 |
42 |
4 |
2 |
3.47 |
| 70th |
72 |
71 |
16 |
44 |
4 |
2 |
3.38 |
| 80th |
74 |
69 |
15 |
46 |
3 |
1 |
2.92 |
| 90th |
77 |
67 |
14 |
49 |
2 |
1 |
2.45 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 6 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
29 |
68 |
72 |
17 |
44 |
5 |
2 |
3.85 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
2.5 |
| 2010 |
30 |
61 |
66 |
16 |
39 |
5 |
1 |
4.01 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
1.8 |
| 2011 |
31 |
55 |
59 |
15 |
34 |
4 |
1 |
3.94 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.0 |
| 2012 |
32 |
49 |
54 |
13 |
31 |
4 |
1 |
4.12 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.7 |
| 2013 |
33 |
44 |
48 |
12 |
27 |
3 |
1 |
4.01 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.8 |
| 2014 |
34 |
40 |
43 |
11 |
24 |
3 |
1 |
3.99 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.