Matt O'Brien
Age: 26
Team: DET
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
6 |
88 |
106 |
15 |
36 |
29 |
4 |
60 |
56 |
5.73 |
16 |
16 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
64 |
95 |
35 |
17 |
17 |
5 |
8.30 |
| 20th |
70 |
98 |
35 |
20 |
17 |
5 |
7.59 |
| 30th |
76 |
100 |
35 |
23 |
16 |
5 |
6.75 |
| 40th |
82 |
104 |
36 |
26 |
16 |
4 |
6.26 |
| 50th |
88 |
106 |
36 |
29 |
15 |
4 |
5.73 |
| 60th |
90 |
105 |
35 |
31 |
14 |
4 |
5.40 |
| 70th |
93 |
104 |
34 |
33 |
13 |
3 |
4.94 |
| 80th |
97 |
101 |
32 |
36 |
11 |
2 |
4.18 |
| 90th |
101 |
98 |
30 |
39 |
9 |
2 |
3.65 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 4 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
26 |
87 |
108 |
37 |
32 |
16 |
4 |
6.04 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
27 |
78 |
98 |
32 |
28 |
14 |
3 |
6.01 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
28 |
70 |
89 |
29 |
25 |
13 |
3 |
6.16 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
29 |
63 |
80 |
25 |
23 |
12 |
3 |
6.14 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
30 |
57 |
72 |
23 |
20 |
11 |
2 |
6.11 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
31 |
51 |
65 |
21 |
18 |
9 |
2 |
6.09 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.