Rick Porcello
Age: 20
Team: DET
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
5 |
79 |
90 |
13 |
42 |
34 |
5 |
54 |
50 |
5.7 |
17 |
17 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
56 |
82 |
41 |
20 |
16 |
7 |
9.16 |
| 20th |
62 |
84 |
41 |
24 |
15 |
6 |
7.98 |
| 30th |
68 |
86 |
41 |
27 |
14 |
6 |
7.01 |
| 40th |
73 |
88 |
42 |
31 |
14 |
5 |
6.41 |
| 50th |
79 |
90 |
42 |
34 |
13 |
5 |
5.70 |
| 60th |
82 |
89 |
41 |
36 |
12 |
4 |
5.16 |
| 70th |
84 |
87 |
40 |
39 |
11 |
4 |
4.71 |
| 80th |
88 |
84 |
38 |
42 |
9 |
3 |
4.09 |
| 90th |
93 |
80 |
35 |
46 |
6 |
2 |
3.10 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 5 |
0.5 |
2.6 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
20 |
78 |
92 |
43 |
37 |
14 |
5 |
6.11 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
21 |
71 |
82 |
38 |
34 |
12 |
4 |
5.83 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
22 |
64 |
74 |
33 |
32 |
11 |
4 |
5.82 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
23 |
57 |
67 |
29 |
29 |
10 |
4 |
5.95 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
24 |
52 |
60 |
26 |
27 |
9 |
3 |
5.75 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
25 |
47 |
54 |
23 |
24 |
8 |
3 |
5.70 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.