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This is an evaluation of the 2021 to 2023 drafts, from the standpoint of the 2024-2025 offseason. Perry Minasian took over the team beginning with 2021, so previous drafts were overseen by different regimes. There is no point even trying to assess the 2024 draft. Many players, especially pitchers, who signed in 2024 will not make their debuts until next year. Among those who have appeared, they should be given a full season in professional baseball before we can even hope to come to a verdict.
Ideally this kind of analysis would be done ten years out, once most of the players take have had a chance to move through the minors, make the big leagues, or fall short of that goal. Once they make it, you can judge them on their first 6-7 years. Anything after that will have to be paid for with free agent dollars.
2021 Draft
Across MLB
- How many players were drafted?
612. 566 signed.
- How many have already made it to the major leagues?
73, or 2.4 per team
- Who are the best to have made it to the major leagues so far?
Guardians and Mariners have two starting rotation pitchers each from this draft. Guardians have Tanner Bibee (5th round) and Gavin Williams (1st). The Mariners have Bryan Woo (6th) and Bryce Miller (4th). Others pitchers include Andrew Abbott (Reds, 2nd), Flame throwing A's closer Mason Miller (3rd), and Spencer Schwellenback of the Braves (round 2). Infielder Matt McClain (Reds, round 1) had a great rookie season in 2023 but missed 2024 due to injury. Zach Gelof (A's, second round) has shown good power, speed, and defense, though a lot of swing and miss.
In the outfield Sal Frelick (1st) of the Brewers and Jacob Young (7th) of the Nationals have great gloves, good speed and acceptable contact, but don't hit for much power. Colton Cowser (1st, 5th overall) is a good defensive outfielder with very good power. Jackson Merrill (late first round) of the Padres is the total package. After a possible Rookie of the Year debut in 2024 at only 21 years of age he looks like a future superstar.
- How many are on the Fangraphs top prospect list (Big Board)?
142, or 4.7 per team
Angels
- How many players were drafted?
20. 19 signed, all except the very last pick. This draft was notable in that the Angels selected only pitchers.
- How many have already made it to the major leagues?
Three. Chase Silseth and Sam Bachman are still in the organization. Ky Bush was traded to the White Sox in a disastrous deal at the 2023 trading deadline. The team collapsed anyway and the players acquired went on waivers a few weeks later. The White Sox ended up with Bush and catcher Edgar Quero, who is now one of their best prospects.
- How many are on the Fangraphs top prospect list (Big Board)?
Only two, Bush and Mason Albright, sent to Colorado in a similar 2023 deadline deal. Neither is a great prospect, Fangraphs has them at future value 40. The Angels have nobody in the minor leagues from this draft who made the big board.
- What should have been the expectations for this draft?
Angels spent 10.7 million, 11th among MLB teams. Bachman was the 9th overall pick. Angels started with slightly above average draft resources in terms of picks and money. The draft has given them below average returns to date.
Overall, this draft looks very poor. There are no ranked prospects remaining in the organization and the ones who have made the majors have not distinguished themselves, Silseth has been a below average starter in parts of three seasons. He gets a lot of strikeouts but allows too many homers. It is unlikely, but possible that he turns into a good starter. A more likely path to success for him could be a move to the bullpen, he's no worse than Luke Weaver was this time last year. Bachman pitched 11 games out of the bullpen for the 2023 team and was OK. In the minors he has only been a starter but has reliever-like workloads, a high of 61 innings.
2022 Draft
Across MLB
- How many players were drafted?
612. 558 signed.
- How many have already made it to the major leagues?
24, or 0.8 per team
- Who are the best to have made it to the major leagues so far?
Hands down, the answer is Zach Neto. He is already a very good MLB shortstop. When Mike Trout is on the injured list, which is nearly all the time, Neto is the best player on the team. He's a good defensive shortstop, a fine baserunner, and a good hitter. He already holds the single season team record for homeruns by a shortstop. The Angels have not had an all-around shortstop like this since Jim Fregosi. Ben Joyce, with his 105 MPH fastball, is one of the most dominant relievers in the game. We just have to hope his arm holds up. Jackson Holliday, the first overall pick by the Orioles, remains the most likely guy to eventually end up as the best player from the draft. The Angels though had no chance to pick him. There is nobody I would rather have than Neto if allowed to pick 13th again with hindsight.
- How many are on the Fangraphs top prospect list (Big Board)?
165, or 5.5 per team
Angels
- How many players were drafted?
19. 18 signed.
- How many have already made it to the major leagues?
Four, with Caden Dana and Victor Mederos in addition to Joyce and Neto.
- How many are on the Fangraphs top prospect list (Big Board)?
One, Caden Dana
- What should have been the expectations for this draft?
The Angels spent 8.3 million, 22nd among all teams. Neto was taken 13th overall, but they did not have a second round pick due to the free agent signing of either Raicel Iglesias or Noah Syndergaard.
The Angels had fewer draft resources than most teams because of surrendering the second round pick to sign free agents. They have fewer prospects waiting in the wings than most other teams. Still, this draft has to be viewed as a big success. They have already produced two very good MLB players in Neto and Joyce, and Neto to date has been the best player from the draft.
2023 Draft
Across MLB
- How many players were drafted?
605. 560 signed.
- How many have already made it to the major leagues?
Only 10, One third of a player for each team.
- Who are the best to have made it to the major leagues so far?
This one is easy. The first overall pick, Paul Skenes, was the best starting pitcher in baseball from his debut date until the end of the season. If he had pitched like that from opening day he might have a Cy Young award as a rookie. As it is, he'll very likely finish in the top 5. Wyatt Langford of the Rangers, the 4th overall pick, was the starting left fielder and hit 16 homers, stole 19 bases, and played strong defense. The Angels picked Nolan Ryan Schanuel with the 11th pick and he looks like a good one. In his first full season he was about league average as a hitter and played strong defense. He has exceptional plate discipline and could develop into a high OBP player with 20 homerun power. While not a fast runner, he stole 10 bases in 11 tries.
- How many are on the Fangraphs top prospect list (Big Board)?
174, or 5.8 per team.
Angels
- How many players were drafted?
19. All signed. The Angels again did not have a second round pick due to signing a free agent with a qualifying offer. In this case, they gave up the pick to sign Tyler Anderson.
- How many have already made it to the major leagues?
One, Schanuel.
- How many are on the Fangraphs top prospect list (Big Board)?
Six. George Klassen is the highest ranked, he was drafted by the Phillies and acquired in a deadline trade for the 2024 closer, Charlie Sheen. The Angels have 5 others on the board that were products of their own draft. While the other 5 are not highly ranked prospects, at least they made the board. This group includes 2 pitchers, 2 outfielders, and one infield condiment (the speedy Caleb Ketchup).
- What should have been the expectations for this draft?
The Angels spent 10 million on this draft, 20th among all teams. While having the 11th overall pick should get you a slightly better than average draft pool, it hurts to surrender a second round pick. Despite that, the Angels had a solid draft, and since Schanuel has already turned in an average big league season I'd say it was better than expected. They didn't knock it out of the park like with the 2022 draft, but did a good job.
Overall, the recent drafts of Minasian are something Angels fans should be happy with, at least for now. The final story of the drafts won't be known for many years. The 2021 draft was a disaster and I strongly disagree with the strategy. With a weak farm system there is no reason to target a specific position, you should try at all points to fill your team with the best player available. There are about as many position players as there are pitchers who could be the best available at any given point, so I would expect with 20 picks, half the time the best available will be a hitter. If you go into the draft with the idea of only selecting a pitcher, then half the time you are leaving the best available talent on the board for someone else to pick up. The best part about the strategy is that it seems they learned from it and did not attempt to do it again. The 2022 to 2024 drafts were much more balanced, and by the early returns, very productive.
My advice on future drafts would be to keep doing more of the same, identify and pick the best talent. Sounds so easy. The hard part is making the right choices, but that's why you have a team of scouts and front office personnel. They did a good job with the 2022 and 2023 drafts, so let them keep doing that. Don't try anything silly like focusing on one position at the exclusion of everyone else. In 2024, the Angels did not lose a draft pick for signing a free agent and picked up an extra one for losing Ohtani. I don't think this offseason is the right time to spend big money on free agents, you generally get players over age 30. Save that for when you develop more young talent and are ready to make the leap from roster building to contention. Don't be fooled into thinking you're close. You aren't. A lot of work remains to get this team back to contender status.
If you do sign high priced free agents though, just make sure you take one without a Q next to his price tag. There is only one Juan Soto, but for every other player on the free agent market, there is a viable alternative who does not have a qualifying offer attached.
This page was last modified 10/27/2024
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