Justin Verlander
Age: 26
Team: DET
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 12 |
8 |
185 |
176 |
18 |
70 |
150 |
12 |
88 |
81 |
3.94 |
30 |
30 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
142 |
150 |
62 |
111 |
18 |
12 |
4.88 |
| 20th |
153 |
156 |
64 |
121 |
18 |
12 |
4.59 |
| 30th |
164 |
163 |
66 |
131 |
18 |
12 |
4.34 |
| 40th |
175 |
169 |
68 |
140 |
18 |
12 |
4.11 |
| 50th |
185 |
176 |
70 |
150 |
18 |
12 |
3.94 |
| 60th |
189 |
176 |
70 |
154 |
17 |
12 |
3.81 |
| 70th |
194 |
177 |
69 |
159 |
17 |
11 |
3.62 |
| 80th |
199 |
175 |
68 |
165 |
15 |
10 |
3.35 |
| 90th |
205 |
174 |
66 |
172 |
14 |
9 |
3.07 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 34 |
3.2 |
14.5 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
26 |
185 |
176 |
71 |
164 |
19 |
12 |
3.99 |
1.0 |
3.2 |
14.2 |
| 2010 |
27 |
167 |
160 |
63 |
146 |
17 |
10 |
3.99 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
14.3 |
| 2011 |
28 |
150 |
144 |
55 |
131 |
15 |
9 |
3.96 |
1.0 |
2.7 |
14.2 |
| 2012 |
29 |
135 |
131 |
49 |
116 |
14 |
8 |
4.02 |
1.0 |
2.4 |
13.9 |
| 2013 |
30 |
121 |
118 |
45 |
103 |
12 |
8 |
4.05 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
13.5 |
| 2014 |
31 |
109 |
106 |
41 |
91 |
11 |
7 |
4.06 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
12.8 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.