Baseball Projection.com

Dontrelle Willis

Age: 27 Team: DET

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
7	8	138	152	16	68	81	7	84	78	5.09	24	24

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	104	131	61	57	17	8	6.58
20th	113	136	62	64	17	7	6.05
30th	122	141	64	70	16	7	5.53
40th	130	147	66	75	16	7	5.33
50th	138	152	68	81	16	7	5.09
60th	142	152	67	84	15	7	4.75
70th	145	152	67	87	14	6	4.53
80th	149	151	66	91	13	5	4.23
90th	154	148	64	96	11	5	3.80

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

8 0.8 3.9

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 27 137 154 69 88 17 7 5.26 1.0 0.5 2.1

2010 28 123 139 61 79 15 7 5.28 1.0 0.4 1.8

2011 29 111 126 54 70 14 6 5.30 1.0 0.3 1.5

2012 30 100 113 49 62 12 5 5.23 1.0 0.4 2.2

2013 31 90 102 45 55 11 5 5.30 1.0 0.3 1.8

2014 32 80 92 42 49 10 4 5.46 1.0 0.1 0.7

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
8	0.8	3.9

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	27	137	154	69	88	17	7	5.26	1.0	0.5	2.1
2010	28	123	139	61	79	15	7	5.28	1.0	0.4	1.8
2011	29	111	126	54	70	14	6	5.30	1.0	0.3	1.5
2012	30	100	113	49	62	12	5	5.23	1.0	0.4	2.2
2013	31	90	102	45	55	11	5	5.30	1.0	0.3	1.8
2014	32	80	92	42	49	10	4	5.46	1.0	0.1	0.7

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.