Projected Standings as of 2-17-2024



I don't think I've done this, at least on my website, since 2010. Here's what I have right now. There are still a few free agents out there who could shake things up, all of them are Scott Boras clients. The big ones are:

  • Blake Snell, Cy Young winner
  • Jordan Montgomery, postseason star and world champion
  • Clay Bellinger, former MVP coming off an excellent comeback season
  • Matt Chapman, power hitting gold glover

Whoever signs one or more of these guys should see a bump in the standings. There are more free agents out there than that, but the others are more likely to fill supporting roles or sign minor league contracts. Some of them might not get another contract, especially among the older ones. Most retirements don't happen with a farewell tour like Derek Jeter and David Ortiz. More often, spring training rolls around and they find themselves with no offers. J.D. Martinez can still hit, but as a DH he's a step below Chapman and Bellinger.

As you might suspect given that I've posted these, I'm also a free agent. This is the first year since 2010 that I will not be working for a team. I think I'm retired. At least from working on the inside. I expect to do a lot more on my website this year.

American League


AL East Wins Losses AL Central Wins Losses AL West Wins Losses
Yankees 90 72 Twins 84 78 Astros 92 70
Blue Jays 88 74 Guardians 82 80 Rangers 85 77
Orioles 86 76 Royals 75 87 Mariners 84 78
Rays 84 78 Tigers 75 87 Angels 74 88
Red Sox 80 82 White Sox 71 91 A's 67 95


Keep in mind there is a ton of variability in this. A team with 81 win talent can easily finish 87-75 or 75-87 just by a few bad hops and bounces. I'm not convinced on many of these. The Rays will probably get some all-star performances out of guys that other teams give up on (though the Rays have no better luck than the rest in keeping these breakout players healthy). The Orioles have so much young talent ready to join an already good team. Angels are projected to win one more game than they did last year with Ohtani? That seems a little optimistic too.

National League


NL East Wins Losses NL Central Wins Losses NL West Wins Losses
Braves 101 61 Cardinals 86 76 Dodgers 94 68
Phillies 90 72 Reds 80 82 D-Backs 82 80
Mets 80 82 Brewers 80 82 Padres 79 83
Marlins 77 85 Cubs 79 83 Giants 79 83
Nationals 64 98 Pirates 74 88 Rockies 66 96


Braves are just ridiculously loaded. They aren't just good everywhere, they have an all-star everywhere. If Chris Sale can shake the injury bug this year their upside is even greater. But even if he can only make 10 starts, this team should easily win the division. My projection system is telling me the Cardinals just had a year where everything went wrong, but they still have top line talent. They also made some nice upgrades to the rotation. We'll see. 94 wins seems like a floor for the Dodgers. They won another 100 last year despite having several holes in the rotation and lineup. Now they've brought in a billion dollars worth of Japanese superstars. Plus Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler Glasnow. They look as loaded as they ever have.

The National league has two super teams. Good luck to whoever plays them in the first round. As we've seen, super teams can guarantee nothing in a short series.

Standings were last modified 2/18/2024

End of Year Evaluation

AL East projected actual AL Central projected actual AL West projected actual
Yankees 90 94 Twins 84 82 Astros 92 88
Blue Jays 88 74 Guardians 82 92 Rangers 85 78
Orioles 86 91 Royals 75 86 Mariners 84 85
Rays 84 80 Tigers 75 86 Angels 74 63
Red Sox 80 81 White Sox 71 41 A's 67 69

The standard deviation of wins in a 162 game season is 6. That means that even if you knew for a fact that a team was a .500 team, that does not mean they will always finish exactly 81-81. In 2/3 of the cases the team will win somewhere between 75 and 87 games. If you don't believe me, then go get a piece of paper and a quarter. Flip the coin 162 times, heads you win, tails you lose. Record your team's record. Repeat 100 times. See what happens.

For that reason, I consider anything within 6 games a good projection. In the AL 8 of 15 were with 6 games. 6 were within 12 games, and then the White Sox. I thought the White Sox would be bad, a last place team, but had no clue they would be historically bad. Their unique incompetence makes the projections for the rest of the division look worse, as KC and Detroit beat up on the White Sox and that is part of the reason they had good years and made it to the playoffs. The White Sox also made the Twins projection look worse. They were only 2 games below their projection, but would have been much worse if not for their ability to beat up on the White Sox.

VS CWS W L
Twins 12 1
Guardians 8 5
Royals 12 1
Tigers 10 3

National League

NL East projected actual NL Central projected actual NL West projected actual
Braves 101 89 Cardinals 86 83 Dodgers 94 98
Phillies 90 95 Reds 80 77 D-Backs 82 89
Mets 80 89 Brewers 80 93 Padres 79 93
Marlins 77 62 Cubs 79 83 Giants 79 80
Nationals 64 71 Pirates 74 76 Rockies 66 61

In the NL, another 8 teams were within 6. There is no huge miss like the White Sox. The Mets, Brewers, and Padres were significantly better than the projections gave them credit for. The Braves were quite a bit worse, but that would not have been a surprise if you knew before the season started that their best pitcher from 2023, Spencer Strider, and the league MVP, Ronald Acuna, would both miss most of the season. The Marlins, fresh off a 2023 playoff appearance, got off to a 7-24 start. They played marginally better after that, but were effectively buried by the first month.

This page was last modified 1/11/2025


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