I don't think I've done this, at least on my website, since 2010. Here's what I have right now. There are still a few free agents out there who could shake things up, all of them are Scott Boras clients. The big ones are:
Whoever signs one or more of these guys should see a bump in the standings. There are more free agents out there than that, but the others are more likely to fill supporting roles or sign minor league contracts. Some of them might not get another contract, especially among the older ones. Most retirements don't happen with a farewell tour like Derek Jeter and David Ortiz. More often, spring training rolls around and they find themselves with no offers. J.D. Martinez can still hit, but as a DH he's a step below Chapman and Bellinger. As you might suspect given that I've posted these, I'm also a free agent. This is the first year since 2010 that I will not be working for a team. I think I'm retired. At least from working on the inside. I expect to do a lot more on my website this year. American League
Keep in mind there is a ton of variability in this. A team with 81 win talent can easily finish 87-75 or 75-87 just by a few bad hops and bounces. I'm not convinced on many of these. The Rays will probably get some all-star performances out of guys that other teams give up on (though the Rays have no better luck than the rest in keeping these breakout players healthy). The Orioles have so much young talent ready to join an already good team. Angels are projected to win one more game than they did last year with Ohtani? That seems a little optimistic too. National League
Braves are just ridiculously loaded. They aren't just good everywhere, they have an all-star everywhere. If Chris Sale can shake the injury bug this year their upside is even greater. But even if he can only make 10 starts, this team should easily win the division. My projection system is telling me the Cardinals just had a year where everything went wrong, but they still have top line talent. They also made some nice upgrades to the rotation. We'll see. 94 wins seems like a floor for the Dodgers. They won another 100 last year despite having several holes in the rotation and lineup. Now they've brought in a billion dollars worth of Japanese superstars. Plus Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler Glasnow. They look as loaded as they ever have. The National league has two super teams. Good luck to whoever plays them in the first round. As we've seen, super teams can guarantee nothing in a short series.
Standings were last modified 2/18/2024 End of Year Evaluation
The standard deviation of wins in a 162 game season is 6. That means that even if you knew for a fact that a team was a .500 team, that does not mean they will always finish exactly 81-81. In 2/3 of the cases the team will win somewhere between 75 and 87 games. If you don't believe me, then go get a piece of paper and a quarter. Flip the coin 162 times, heads you win, tails you lose. Record your team's record. Repeat 100 times. See what happens. For that reason, I consider anything within 6 games a good projection. In the AL 8 of 15 were with 6 games. 6 were within 12 games, and then the White Sox. I thought the White Sox would be bad, a last place team, but had no clue they would be historically bad. Their unique incompetence makes the projections for the rest of the division look worse, as KC and Detroit beat up on the White Sox and that is part of the reason they had good years and made it to the playoffs. The White Sox also made the Twins projection look worse. They were only 2 games below their projection, but would have been much worse if not for their ability to beat up on the White Sox.
National League
In the NL, another 8 teams were within 6. There is no huge miss like the White Sox. The Mets, Brewers, and Padres were significantly better than the projections gave them credit for. The Braves were quite a bit worse, but that would not have been a surprise if you knew before the season started that their best pitcher from 2023, Spencer Strider, and the league MVP, Ronald Acuna, would both miss most of the season. The Marlins, fresh off a 2023 playoff appearance, got off to a 7-24 start. They played marginally better after that, but were effectively buried by the first month. This page was last modified 1/11/2025 |